Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 10.529931 12.089750 13.775256 15.728683 17.926912 20.320691 23.121254
2025-04-27 8.277835 10.389732 12.853603 15.927073 19.643835 23.977982 29.398413
2025-05-04 7.010164 9.324016 12.160421 15.868261 20.559495 26.266998 33.702531
2025-05-11 5.963805 8.361604 11.435214 15.624959 21.142241 28.108962 37.512822
2025-05-18 5.267582 7.731820 11.014986 15.653887 21.973734 30.207667 41.656754
2025-05-25 4.754386 7.276728 10.757282 15.836700 22.970126 32.525999 46.165598
2025-06-01 4.268915 6.797050 10.402518 15.825417 23.658616 34.423844 50.162199
2025-06-08 3.818016 6.313944 9.987286 15.672636 24.105581 35.976030 53.721768
2025-06-15 3.505354 6.003767 9.788909 15.802751 24.940695 38.085302 58.134584
2025-06-22 3.312382 5.858671 9.819844 16.264835 26.273533 40.953754 63.751321
2025-06-29 2.998993 5.485316 9.461046 16.090608 26.618911 42.371761 67.286827
2025-07-06 2.597426 4.923120 8.751733 15.303017 25.953269 42.222015 68.445390
2025-07-13 2.453346 4.795359 8.748504 15.664013 27.132431 44.960934 74.161649
2025-07-20 2.309276 4.653568 8.709519 15.960581 28.221806 47.611027 79.864365
2025-07-27 2.115642 4.400370 8.455410 15.868364 28.655324 49.230532 83.999553
2025-08-03 1.920523 4.123961 8.136187 15.636123 28.831596 50.432625 87.505988
2025-08-10 1.782480 3.943216 7.972537 15.661334 29.437849 52.348829 92.232242
2025-08-17 1.678521 3.819359 7.902251 15.845497 30.322323 54.754288 97.849019
2025-08-24 1.558675 3.650724 7.733256 15.833779 30.854229 56.582553 102.569339
2025-08-31 1.433000 3.456734 7.499082 15.681070 31.118245 57.956504 106.566660
2025-09-07 1.350104 3.345903 7.418188 15.811199 31.897315 60.241425 112.194114
2025-09-14 1.308213 3.321193 7.507047 16.273521 33.310187 63.685717 119.947117
2025-09-21 1.205668 3.149112 7.281287 16.099205 33.515326 64.996420 124.016615